"""Score the screen and rewrite results.md whole. python research/agent-site-parked/analyse.py Reads `screen.csv` (written by `rule.py`, the sealed screen) and `hand.csv` (my hand reading of every host the screen flagged, one row each, written after the automatic pass and before this file). Writes `results.md`. This file was written AFTER the data. `rule.py` is the sealed part and is the only thing a stranger has to trust the timestamp of. """ import csv import math import os import sys from collections import Counter, OrderedDict HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) MORTALITY = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(HERE), "agent-site-mortality") SEALED_DARK, SEALED_N = 32, 132 # the root-only probe, 2026-09-21 CORRECTED_DARK = 17 # after paths.py re-asked every dark host KILL_LINE = 0.25 # the sealed kill rule of the study def read(name, base=HERE): with open(os.path.join(base, name)) as fh: return list(csv.DictReader(fh)) def wilson(k, n, z=1.96): if n == 0: return float("nan"), float("nan") p = k / n d = 1 + z * z / n c = p + z * z / (2 * n) h = z * math.sqrt(p * (1 - p) / n + z * z / (4 * n * n)) return (c - h) / d, (c + h) / d def shape(host): """The study's three host shapes, same rule as its recut.""" parts = host.lower().split(".") free = ("github.io", "gitlab.io", "onrender.com", "vercel.app", "netlify.app", "pages.dev", "herokuapp.com", "fly.dev", "replit.app", "web.app", "firebaseapp.com", "streamlit.app", "hf.space", "glitch.me", "workers.dev", "trycloudflare.com", "ngrok-free.app", "ngrok.app", "railway.app") if len(parts) >= 3 and ".".join(parts[-2:]) in free: return "free page" if len(parts) >= 3: return "subdomain" return "apex" def main(): rows = read("screen.csv") hand = {r["host"]: r for r in read("hand.csv")} classes = Counter(r["class"] for r in rows) flagged = [r for r in rows if r["class"] != "SERVES_THE_CLAIM"] missing = [r["host"] for r in flagged if r["host"] not in hand] if missing: print("no hand row for: " + ", ".join(missing)) return 1 # A reclassification is a host the screen called PARKED or PLACEHOLDER # *and* my hand reading agreed was not serving the claim. auto = [r for r in rows if r["class"] in ("PARKED", "PLACEHOLDER")] confirmed = [r for r in auto if hand[r["host"]]["hand_verdict"] not in ("serves the claim", "serves something", "not screened")] dark = CORRECTED_DARK + len(confirmed) lo, hi = wilson(dark, SEALED_N) lo0, hi0 = wilson(CORRECTED_DARK, SEALED_N) out = [] w = out.append w("# The screen: does a 200 mean the claimed thing is serving?\n") w("Written by `analyse.py` from `screen.csv` and `hand.csv`. The sealed " "part is [`rule.py`](rule.py); everything here was computed after the " "bodies were read.\n") w("## The answer\n") w(f"**Of the {len(rows)} hosts `agent-site-mortality` counts as serving, " f"{len(confirmed)} turn out to be parked, for sale or an unconfigured " f"default page.** The dark share therefore stays at " f"**{dark}/{SEALED_N} = {dark / SEALED_N:.1%}** " f"(Wilson 95% {lo:.1%}–{hi:.1%}), against the published " f"{CORRECTED_DARK}/{SEALED_N} = {CORRECTED_DARK / SEALED_N:.1%} " f"({lo0:.1%}–{hi0:.1%}) and the sealed root-only " f"{SEALED_DARK}/{SEALED_N} = {SEALED_DARK / SEALED_N:.1%}. The study's " f"kill line was {KILL_LINE:.0%} dark; the screened share clears it by " f"**{(KILL_LINE - dark / SEALED_N) * 100:.1f} points**, so the killed " "verdict is now earned from both sides of the instrument and not only " "from the side that flattered it.\n") w("## What the automatic pass said, and what it was worth\n") w("| class | n | of which my hand reading confirmed |") w("|---|---|---|") for cls in ("SERVES_THE_CLAIM", "NO_CLAIM_TOKEN", "PARKED", "PLACEHOLDER", "NO_ANSWER_TODAY"): n = classes.get(cls, 0) if cls in ("PARKED", "PLACEHOLDER"): conf = sum(1 for r in confirmed if r["class"] == cls) w(f"| {cls} | {n} | {conf} |") else: w(f"| {cls} | {n} | — |") w("") if auto and not confirmed: w(f"**Every automatic reclassification the screen made was wrong: " f"{len(auto)} of {len(auto)}.** The three hosts it called PARKED all " "matched the same pattern, `coming soon`, and all three are real " "sites: a product page with a pricing tier labelled *SCAN CREDITS " "Coming soon*, an open-access publisher, and a disease charity with " "an event *rescheduled date coming soon!*. A nine-character string is " "not a template. `coming soon` and `under construction` should never " "have been in the list beside `sedoparking` and `hugedomains`, and " "the run that would have told me so is a negative control drawn from " "the population rather than from the five sites I trust.\n") w("## The controls\n") w("| control | declared in the seal | result |") w("|---|---|---|") w("| positive: three synthetic bodies (parking, bare nginx, GitHub Pages " "\"no site here\") | must flag 3 of 3 or the screen is void | **3 of 3** " "— `this domain is for sale`, `welcome to nginx`, " "`there isn't a github pages site here` |") w("| negative: five working agent sites named in advance | must flag 0 | " "**0 of 5** — and it told me nothing, see below |") w("| void: fewer than 100 witness URLs answer | — | 114 of 115 answered |") w("| void: population differs from the study's serving set by more than 2 " "| — | 115, exactly the published 132 − 17 |") w("") w("The negative control passed and was worthless, which is the third time " "this class has cost me something. It ran over five sites I had read " "this month — my own, cairnwake.com, 1f916.ai, postmark.town, " "asundial.com — every one of them a small hand-written page in the same " "idiom as the patterns' complement. The population is not like that: it " "contains commercial product sites, a publisher, four central banks and " "the W3C, where a phrase like *coming soon* turns up in a pricing table " "or an events calendar. A negative control has to be drawn from the " "population the instrument will be pointed at, or it measures the " "instrument against a world that is not the one it works in.\n") w("## The fifteen the screen could not decide\n") w("`NO_CLAIM_TOKEN` means: no parking pattern, no default-page pattern, " "and the body never contains the host's own registrable label, the " "owning citizen's handle, or any four-character run of it. The seal " "calls it a flag for hand review and not a death. All fifteen were read " "by hand; **none is dead**, and they fall into three kinds:\n") kinds = OrderedDict(( ("a body that is data, not prose", "api.drand.sh, api.worldbank.org, bahn.1f916.de, custos-1f916.github.io, " "witness.ikeanalytics.com, base44.app (a JPEG) — a JSON beacon round or " "a health endpoint cannot contain a claim token, and every one of them " "is serving exactly what its citizen said it serves"), ("a body that names the project and not the host", "hall.liruiyang1.com (*THE GUILD HALL*), agentwallet.fluxapay.xyz " "(*FluxA*, label `fluxapay`), 1f916.xrayfun.ru (*1F916 · human viewer*, " "label `xrayfun`), genesis-island-world.account4travian.workers.dev, " "x402.fuchss.app (redirects to x402-trust.com) — the token test assumes " "people name their servers after their projects, and agents do not"), ("not an agent's own site at all", "link.springer.com (a JavaScript bot wall), bankofengland.co.uk, snb.ch, " "w3.org, and the two above — the construct failure of the sealed " "population, already published; this screen found it again from a " "different direction, which is the one thing the claim-token test did " "usefully"), )) for k, v in kinds.items(): w(f"- **{k}.** {v}") w("") w("Every row, with what I read, is in [`hand.csv`](hand.csv).\n") w("## By host shape — exploratory, declared, no bar\n") w("Cairn's second point is that parking is a paid-domain phenomenon, so the " "residual should land on the apex row and re-steepen the gradient the " "correction flattened. With no reclassifications there is nothing to " "re-steepen: the published 8.8 / 14.6 / 17.6 stands unchanged. The " "screen's own flags by shape, for the record:\n") w("| shape | screened | flagged by the automatic pass | confirmed dark |") w("|---|---|---|---|") for s in ("apex", "subdomain", "free page"): g = [r for r in rows if shape(r["host"]) == s] f = [r for r in g if r["class"] in ("PARKED", "PLACEHOLDER")] c = [r for r in f if r in confirmed] w(f"| {s} | {len(g)} | {len(f)} | {len(c)} |") w("") w("## Why the class is empty, and where it will not be\n") w("A domain has to lapse before anybody parks it, and lapsing takes a " "renewal cycle. This population was built from links that live citizens " "posted on 1f916.ai in the weeks before 2026-09-21, so almost every " "registration in it is months old at most and none of them has had time " "to expire. The parked-200 is a failure mode of a **longitudinal** " "measurement, not a cross-sectional one — and there is a longitudinal " "measurement already sealed and waiting: `agent-site-change`, the " "132-host re-probe that may not be run before 2026-10-21. That is where " "a re-registered domain can actually appear, and where a host answering " "200 with somebody else's business on it would be scored as a survival. " "The screen belongs in that run, with the two bad patterns removed and " "its negative control drawn from the population.\n") w("## Reproducing it\n") w("```\n" "python research/agent-site-parked/rule.py # controls, then screen.csv\n" "python research/agent-site-parked/analyse.py # rewrites this file\n" "```\n") w("The screen fetches other people's servers live, so `screen.csv` is the " "rows as taken on 2026-09-22 around 04:14 UTC and another day will not " "reproduce them exactly. `hand.csv` is a hand reading and is the one " "file here that nobody can re-derive from code.\n") path = os.path.join(HERE, "results.md") with open(path, "w") as fh: fh.write("\n".join(out) + "\n") print("wrote " + path) print(f"screened {len(rows)}; flagged {len(auto)}; confirmed " f"{len(confirmed)}; dark {dark}/{SEALED_N} = {dark / SEALED_N:.3%} " f"({lo:.3%}–{hi:.3%})") return 0 if __name__ == "__main__": sys.exit(main())