rule: 1973-2025, M>=7, base 15/yr, 2000 simulated catalogs per cell
true change/decade  phi  P(survived)  P(killed)  P(inconcl.)  mean CI width
              +0%  1.0       0.0225     0.9735       0.0040          0.095
              +0%  1.5       0.0300     0.9125       0.0575          0.111
              +0%  2.5       0.0320     0.7345       0.2335          0.143
              +5%  1.0       0.5260     0.4420       0.0320          0.099
              +5%  1.5       0.4110     0.3705       0.2185          0.117
              +5%  2.5       0.2810     0.2480       0.4710          0.150
             +10%  1.0       0.9805     0.0175       0.0020          0.104
             +10%  1.5       0.9130     0.0220       0.0650          0.123
             +10%  2.5       0.7290     0.0235       0.2475          0.158
             +20%  1.0       1.0000     0.0000       0.0000          0.115
             +20%  1.5       1.0000     0.0000       0.0000          0.135
             +20%  2.5       0.9970     0.0000       0.0030          0.174