======================================================================== FRIDAY RELEASES — the sealed rule scored rule.py sha256 ca7ccbdb5f1ab66e99c88396ab284f817c8448bdd82918f782310c79c145b822 seal rule.friday-releases at 1789585933404 ms, 2026-09-16 21:12 Rome ======================================================================== FILTERS (registered: every drop is published) rows read 72,583 no file (deleted release) 353 version unparseable 8 pre-release 7,278 outside 2016..2026-09 4,766 kept 60,178 distinct projects kept 980 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CLAIM A — 'nobody ships on a Friday' ------------------------------------------------------------------------ weekday histogram (UTC), all kept releases: Mon 9,732 16.17% Tue 10,579 17.58% Wed 10,672 17.73% Thu 11,575 19.23% Fri 9,976 16.58% Sat 4,056 6.74% Sun 3,588 5.96% Friday share of Mon..Fri 0.1899 95% CI [0.1866, 0.1933] n = 52,534 flat week would be 0.2000 bars (sealed): survived hi < 0.18, killed lo > 0.19 VERDICT (pooled): INCONCLUSIVE relative dip vs a flat week: +5.1% one vote per project (505 projects with >= 20 weekday releases) median project Friday share 0.1842 quartiles 0.1296 .. 0.2286 agrees with the pooled side of 0.19: yes the same share under six clocks (reported, not scored): UTC-8.0 0.1743 UTC-5.0 0.1778 UTC+0.0 0.1899 UTC+2.0 0.1991 UTC+5.5 0.2243 UTC+8.0 0.2359 Friday share of Mon..Fri by year (reported, not scored): 2016 0.1775 n = 1,448 2017 0.1852 n = 1,928 2018 0.1858 n = 2,616 2019 0.1960 n = 3,158 2020 0.1963 n = 5,569 2021 0.1933 n = 6,054 2022 0.1977 n = 5,204 2023 0.1827 n = 6,284 2024 0.1813 n = 6,999 2025 0.1835 n = 7,439 2026 0.2027 n = 5,835 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CLAIM B — 'Friday releases break' (proxy: another release soon after) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ eligible releases (full 168 h horizon): 59,955 follow-up within 72 h, by day (levels, reported): Mon 4,544 / 9,698 46.86% Tue 5,190 / 10,542 49.23% Wed 5,037 / 10,636 47.36% Thu 4,498 / 11,532 39.00% Fri 3,165 / 9,924 31.89% Sat 1,455 / 4,046 35.96% Sun 1,367 / 3,577 38.22% Friday 3,165/9,924 = 0.3189 Mon..Thu 19,269/42,408 = 0.4544 RR = 0.7019 95% CI [0.6808, 0.7237] bars (sealed): survived lo > 1.1; killed CI inside (0.9, 1.1); floor needs Friday n >= 10,000 VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE registered robustness windows (not scored): 24 h Fri 0.1815 Mon..Thu 0.2654 RR 0.6837 [0.6539, 0.7150] 168 h Fri 0.6055 Mon..Thu 0.5685 RR 1.0651 [1.0462, 1.0844] NEGATIVE CONTROL — Tuesday against Mon/Wed/Thu (sealed, scored): RR = 1.1143 95% CI [1.0890, 1.1402] within the sealed tolerance (0.95, 1.05) or CI covering 1: NO — claim B is VOID by the sealed rule POSITIVE CONTROL — injection floor (sealed): true RR 1.05 confirmed in 0.0% of 400 runs true RR 1.10 confirmed in 3.0% of 400 runs true RR 1.15 confirmed in 97.8% of 400 runs true RR 1.20 confirmed in 100.0% of 400 runs true RR 1.30 confirmed in 100.0% of 400 runs smallest true RR this rule catches 80 % of the time: 1.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ REPORTED, registered, not scored ------------------------------------------------------------------------ hour of day (UTC): peak 20:00 with 12.16%, quietest 06:00 with 1.86% yank rate by weekday: Mon 100 / 9,732 1.028% Tue 94 / 10,579 0.889% Wed 103 / 10,672 0.965% Thu 116 / 11,575 1.002% Fri 92 / 9,976 0.922% Sat 28 / 4,056 0.690% Sun 42 / 3,588 1.171% ======================================================================== CLAIM A: INCONCLUSIVE CLAIM B: INCONCLUSIVE ========================================================================