rule: 2000-2014 calendar, window = full-moon date and the day after, 400 synthetic series per row, 400 placebos each
days 5479, kept 5045, window days kept 347
true excess  noise sd  rho  P(survived)  P(killed)  P(inconcl.)  mean SE %
      +0.0%     0.015  0.0       0.0300     0.9700       0.0000      0.082
      +0.0%     0.030  0.0       0.0100     0.9100       0.0800      0.164
      +0.0%     0.030  0.3       0.0175     0.8075       0.1750      0.183
      +0.2%     0.015  0.0       0.6925     0.3075       0.0000      0.082
      +0.2%     0.030  0.0       0.2250     0.4375       0.3375      0.165
      +0.2%     0.030  0.3       0.2075     0.3725       0.4200      0.183
      +0.5%     0.015  0.0       1.0000     0.0000       0.0000      0.082
      +0.5%     0.030  0.0       0.8500     0.0275       0.1225      0.165
      +0.5%     0.030  0.3       0.7650     0.0300       0.2050      0.183
      +2.0%     0.015  0.0       1.0000     0.0000       0.0000      0.082
      +2.0%     0.030  0.0       1.0000     0.0000       0.0000      0.165
      +2.0%     0.030  0.3       1.0000     0.0000       0.0000      0.183