# London breakout on XAUUSD — run 2026-09-13 19:29 UTC

This is a test record, not advice. Do not trade on it.

Data: `/home/vesper/data/bars/XAUUSD_mt5_m1.csv`. Days skipped for incomplete coverage: 35. Control series: 1000, seed 1. P&L in USD per ounce, after the tick spread.

| window | trades | longs | target / stop / time | rule mean | rule total | control mean | control s.e. | excess (s.e.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 89 | 46 | 47 / 29 / 13 | +5.05 | +449.3 | -0.21 | 3.43 | +1.5 |
| jan-apr | 40 | 24 | 17 / 17 / 6 | +1.84 | +73.6 | +0.09 | 6.15 | +0.3 |
| may-aug | 49 | 22 | 30 / 12 / 7 | +7.67 | +375.8 | -0.19 | 3.45 | +2.3 |

Mean barrier (0.5 × range): 30.65 USD/oz.

## Trades

| date | dir | exit | pnl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | long | target | +20.12 |
| 2026-01-05 | long | stop | -27.99 |
| 2026-01-20 | long | target | +28.86 |
| 2026-01-22 | long | target | +28.39 |
| 2026-01-23 | short | target | +15.41 |
| 2026-01-27 | long | stop | -40.07 |
| 2026-01-28 | long | time | +5.73 |
| 2026-01-30 | short | time | +14.16 |
| 2026-02-03 | long | time | +35.52 |
| 2026-02-04 | long | stop | -72.11 |
| 2026-02-10 | long | stop | -23.63 |
| 2026-02-11 | long | stop | -18.09 |
| 2026-02-12 | long | stop | -16.39 |
| 2026-02-18 | long | target | +40.71 |
| 2026-02-19 | long | stop | -29.87 |
| 2026-02-20 | long | target | +24.22 |
| 2026-02-23 | short | stop | -23.55 |
| 2026-03-02 | long | stop | -43.19 |
| 2026-03-03 | short | target | +50.46 |
| 2026-03-10 | long | stop | -31.05 |
| 2026-03-11 | short | target | +18.23 |
| 2026-03-12 | long | stop | -24.80 |
| 2026-03-13 | short | target | +19.84 |
| 2026-03-16 | long | stop | -31.41 |
| 2026-03-19 | short | target | +20.07 |
| 2026-03-23 | short | target | +104.40 |
| 2026-03-26 | short | time | -33.94 |
| 2026-04-01 | long | target | +33.05 |
| 2026-04-06 | long | time | -13.74 |
| 2026-04-07 | long | stop | -23.98 |
| 2026-04-08 | short | target | +34.74 |
| 2026-04-10 | short | stop | -19.70 |
| 2026-04-13 | long | stop | -34.09 |
| 2026-04-14 | long | stop | -15.69 |
| 2026-04-15 | short | time | +6.89 |
| 2026-04-16 | short | stop | -13.64 |
| 2026-04-21 | short | target | +28.04 |
| 2026-04-28 | short | target | +39.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | short | target | +17.31 |
| 2026-04-30 | long | target | +25.34 |
| 2026-05-01 | short | target | +22.61 |
| 2026-05-04 | short | target | +17.40 |
| 2026-05-05 | long | target | +19.25 |
| 2026-05-06 | long | target | +40.76 |
| 2026-05-07 | long | time | -21.02 |
| 2026-05-12 | short | target | +39.50 |
| 2026-05-13 | short | stop | -19.62 |
| 2026-05-14 | long | stop | -22.12 |
| 2026-05-15 | short | time | +15.96 |
| 2026-05-18 | long | time | -15.21 |
| 2026-05-21 | short | target | +26.24 |
| 2026-05-26 | short | target | +18.75 |
| 2026-05-27 | short | target | +23.03 |
| 2026-05-29 | long | target | +16.01 |
| 2026-06-01 | short | target | +22.94 |
| 2026-06-02 | long | stop | -37.60 |
| 2026-06-03 | short | target | +20.66 |
| 2026-06-10 | short | target | +27.94 |
| 2026-06-15 | long | target | +25.03 |
| 2026-06-16 | long | target | +13.10 |
| 2026-06-18 | short | target | +26.74 |
| 2026-06-23 | short | time | -29.55 |
| 2026-06-26 | long | target | +25.14 |
| 2026-06-29 | short | target | +18.17 |
| 2026-06-30 | long | time | -5.89 |
| 2026-07-01 | short | stop | -23.32 |
| 2026-07-06 | short | time | -4.02 |
| 2026-07-08 | short | target | +18.77 |
| 2026-07-09 | long | target | +26.90 |
| 2026-07-10 | short | target | +13.38 |
| 2026-07-15 | short | stop | -20.40 |
| 2026-07-20 | long | stop | -23.12 |
| 2026-07-23 | short | target | +14.58 |
| 2026-07-24 | long | target | +14.47 |
| 2026-07-28 | short | target | +19.60 |
| 2026-07-29 | long | stop | -17.31 |
| 2026-07-31 | short | target | +17.53 |
| 2026-08-03 | short | stop | -15.86 |
| 2026-08-04 | long | stop | -13.43 |
| 2026-08-05 | long | target | +54.01 |
| 2026-08-07 | long | target | +34.53 |
| 2026-08-10 | long | stop | -23.13 |
| 2026-08-11 | short | stop | -37.67 |
| 2026-08-12 | long | stop | -24.76 |
| 2026-08-13 | short | time | +3.15 |
| 2026-08-19 | long | target | +18.71 |
| 2026-08-21 | long | target | +29.43 |
| 2026-08-26 | short | target | +22.99 |
| 2026-08-27 | short | target | +22.53 |